{"id":249,"date":"2024-08-05T04:43:17","date_gmt":"2024-08-05T04:43:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/?p=249"},"modified":"2024-08-05T04:43:17","modified_gmt":"2024-08-05T04:43:17","slug":"%ed%86%a0%eb%a7%88%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%84%ed%8a%b8thomas-sargent-%ed%95%a9%eb%a6%ac%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%99%80-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85%eb%ac%b4%eb%a0%a5%ec%84%b1rational-expectations-and","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/%ed%86%a0%eb%a7%88%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%84%ed%8a%b8thomas-sargent-%ed%95%a9%eb%a6%ac%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%99%80-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85%eb%ac%b4%eb%a0%a5%ec%84%b1rational-expectations-and\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8(Thomas Sargent) \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45\ubb34\ub825\uc131(Rational Expectations and Policy Ineffectiveness)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><br \/>\n\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8<\/strong>(Thomas Sargent)\ub294 \ud604\ub300 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc704\uce58\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub85c, \uadf8\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc8fc\ub85c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ud559, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860(Rational Expectations Theory)\uc5d0 \uc911\uc810\uc744 \ub450\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>1943\ub144\uc5d0 \ud0dc\uc5b4\ub09c \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \uc2a4\ud0e0\ud37c\ub4dc \ub300\ud559\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc15\uc0ac \ud559\uc704\ub97c \ucde8\ub4dd\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ub300\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uad50\uc218\ub85c \uc7ac\uc9c1\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uacbd\uc81c \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uc2e4\uc99d\uc801 \uac80\uc99d\uacfc \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae4a\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc73c\ub85c \ub110\ub9ac \uc54c\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-302 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4-\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8-229x300.png\" alt=\"\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\" width=\"229\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4-\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8-229x300.png 229w, https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4-\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8.png 455w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 229px) 100vw, 229px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_69_1 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >\ubaa9\ucc28<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/%ed%86%a0%eb%a7%88%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%84%ed%8a%b8thomas-sargent-%ed%95%a9%eb%a6%ac%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%99%80-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85%eb%ac%b4%eb%a0%a5%ec%84%b1rational-expectations-and\/#%ED%86%A0%EB%A7%88%EC%8A%A4_%EC%82%AC%EC%A0%84%ED%8A%B8_%EC%97%B0%EA%B5%AC_%EB%B0%8F_%ED%99%9C%EB%8F%99\" title=\"\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8 \uc5f0\uad6c \ubc0f \ud65c\ub3d9\">\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8 \uc5f0\uad6c \ubc0f \ud65c\ub3d9<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/%ed%86%a0%eb%a7%88%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%84%ed%8a%b8thomas-sargent-%ed%95%a9%eb%a6%ac%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%99%80-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85%eb%ac%b4%eb%a0%a5%ec%84%b1rational-expectations-and\/#%ED%95%A9%EB%A6%AC%EC%A0%81_%EA%B8%B0%EB%8C%80%EC%99%80_%EC%A0%95%EC%B1%85_%EB%AC%B4%EB%A0%A5%EC%84%B1\" title=\"\ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45 \ubb34\ub825\uc131\">\ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45 \ubb34\ub825\uc131<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/%ed%86%a0%eb%a7%88%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%84%ed%8a%b8thomas-sargent-%ed%95%a9%eb%a6%ac%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%99%80-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85%eb%ac%b4%eb%a0%a5%ec%84%b1rational-expectations-and\/#%EB%A7%BA%EC%9D%8C%EB%A7%90\" title=\"\ub9fa\uc74c\ub9d0\">\ub9fa\uc74c\ub9d0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%ED%86%A0%EB%A7%88%EC%8A%A4_%EC%82%AC%EC%A0%84%ED%8A%B8_%EC%97%B0%EA%B5%AC_%EB%B0%8F_%ED%99%9C%EB%8F%99\"><\/span>\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8 \uc5f0\uad6c \ubc0f \ud65c\ub3d9<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 1970\ub144\ub300\uc640 1980\ub144\ub300\uc5d0 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc758 \ud328\ub7ec\ub2e4\uc784 \uc804\ud658\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5ec\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\ub85c \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc5f0\uad6c \uc8fc\uc81c \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ubb34\ub825\uc131\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc774\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc758\ub3c4\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub0b4\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub294 1976\ub144\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \ub17c\ubb38 &#8220;Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy&#8221;\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774 \uac1c\ub150\uc744 \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uadf8\uc758 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc778 \uc5c5\uc801 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 2011\ub144 \ub178\ubca8 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc0c1\uc744 \uc218\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uadf8\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5ec\ud55c \ubc14\ub97c \uc778\uc815\ubc1b\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\uc758 \uc800\uc11c\uc5d0\ub294 &#8220;Rational Expectations and Inflation&#8221;\uacfc &#8220;The Econometric Analysis of Time Series&#8221; \ub4f1\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc800\uc791\ubb3c\ub4e4\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \ubc1c\uc804\uacfc \uc2e4\uc99d \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%ED%95%A9%EB%A6%AC%EC%A0%81_%EA%B8%B0%EB%8C%80%EC%99%80_%EC%A0%95%EC%B1%85_%EB%AC%B4%EB%A0%A5%EC%84%B1\"><\/span>\ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45 \ubb34\ub825\uc131<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\uc758 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub54c, \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \uc815\ubcf4\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uc885\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\ub824\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\uc815\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uc774 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uac1c\ub150\uacfc \uadf8 \uc758\ubbf8\ub97c \uc0c1\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc758 \uc815\uc758<\/strong><br \/>\n\ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\ub780 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ubcf4\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub54c, \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ucd5c\uc801\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9b0\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\uc815\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc989, \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc740 \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc5ec \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ud655\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c \uacb0\uacfc\uc640 \uc77c\uce58\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubbff\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ubb34\ub825\uc131<\/strong><br \/>\n\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774\ub098 \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc758\ub3c4\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud558\uba74 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0, \uc18c\ube44\uc640 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc870\uc815\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc758\ub3c4\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1c\ud718\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131<\/strong><br \/>\n\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc77c\uad00\uc131\uacfc \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub9cc\uc57d \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ubd88\uaddc\uce59\ud558\uac8c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ubcc0\uacbd\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc\uc9c0\uba70, \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc77c\uad00\ub41c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \uc548\uc815\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4. \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc2dc\uac04\uc801 \uc9c0\uc5f0<\/strong><br \/>\n\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc77c\uc815\ud55c \uc2dc\uac04 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc5ec \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ubbf8\ubbf8\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1c\ud718\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 \uadf8 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5. \ubaa8\ub378\ud654<\/strong><br \/>\n\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc218\ud559\uc801 \ubaa8\ub378\ub85c \ubc1c\uc804\uc2dc\ucf30\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\ub860\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ud559 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c \uc790\ub9ac\uc7a1\uc558\uc73c\uba70, \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\uc758 \ud589\ub3d9\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud070 \uae30\uc5ec\ub97c \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>6. \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131<\/strong><br \/>\n\uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud560 \ub54c, \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \ub354\uc6b1 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub9cc\uc57d \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uac70\ub098 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc77c\uad00\uc131\uc774 \uacb0\uc5ec\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4\uba74, \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ub2e4\ub974\uac8c \ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc758\ub3c4\ud55c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1c\ud718\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uace0, \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc77c\uad00\uc131\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>7. \uc2e4\uc99d\uc801 \uac80\uc99d<\/strong><br \/>\n\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc2e4\uc99d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac80\uc99d\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ube44\uad50 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2e4\uc99d\uc801 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc774\ub294 \ub370 \uae30\uc5ec\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>8. \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4<\/strong><br \/>\n\ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4\ub97c \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub824 \ud560 \ub54c, \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uac8c \ub418\uba74 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc2e4\ud589 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uacfc \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ub17c\uc758\ub97c \ubd88\ub7ec\uc77c\uc73c\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><strong>9. \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc790\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/strong><br \/>\n\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uad50\ud6c8\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc758 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc5ec \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc124\uacc4\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc989, \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1c\ud718\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc758 \ud589\ub3d9\uc744 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uace0, \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%EB%A7%BA%EC%9D%8C%EB%A7%90\"><\/span>\ub9fa\uc74c\ub9d0<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\uc758 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45 \ubb34\ub825\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ub860\uc740 \ud604\ub300 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uae30\ucd08\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ub300\ud558\uace0 \ud589\ub3d9\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc758\ub3c4\ud55c \ub300\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc124\uacc4\uc640 \uc2e4\ud589\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uc694\uc18c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba70, \uacbd\uc81c\uc8fc\uccb4\uc758 \ud589\ub3d9\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559 \uc774\ub860\uacfc \uc815\ucc45 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8(Thomas Sargent)\ub294 \ud604\ub300 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc704\uce58\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub85c, \uadf8\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub294 \uc8fc\ub85c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ud559, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ub860(Rational Expectations Theory)\uc5d0 \uc911\uc810\uc744 \ub450\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 1943\ub144\uc5d0 \ud0dc\uc5b4\ub09c \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \uc2a4\ud0e0\ud37c\ub4dc \ub300\ud559\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc15\uc0ac \ud559\uc704\ub97c \ucde8\ub4dd\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ub300\ud559\uc5d0\uc11c \uad50\uc218\ub85c \uc7ac\uc9c1\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \uacbd\uc81c \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uc2e4\uc99d\uc801 \uac80\uc99d\uacfc \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae4a\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc73c\ub85c \ub110\ub9ac \uc54c\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8 \uc5f0\uad6c \ubc0f &#8230; <a title=\"\ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8(Thomas Sargent) \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45\ubb34\ub825\uc131(Rational Expectations and Policy Ineffectiveness)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/%ed%86%a0%eb%a7%88%ec%8a%a4-%ec%82%ac%ec%a0%84%ed%8a%b8thomas-sargent-%ed%95%a9%eb%a6%ac%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80%ec%99%80-%ec%a0%95%ec%b1%85%eb%ac%b4%eb%a0%a5%ec%84%b1rational-expectations-and\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about \ud1a0\ub9c8\uc2a4 \uc0ac\uc804\ud2b8(Thomas Sargent) \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc815\ucc45\ubb34\ub825\uc131(Rational Expectations and Policy Ineffectiveness)\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[65,71,92,93],"class_list":["post-249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-theory","tag-65","tag-71","tag-92","tag-93"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=249"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":303,"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249\/revisions\/303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mostinsight.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}